Don't Miss Out: Key Takeaways from NMFTA Changes, Cargo Theft and Freight Fraud for 2025

The logistics industry is accustomed to disruptions, but 2025 is shaping up to be a critical year for LTL freight classification changes, with new density scales and simplification on the horizon. The National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) is rolling out significant changes aimed at bolstering clarity and efficiency in freight operations. At the same time the LTL market is making these changes, cargo theft and fraud is continuing to increase due to sophisticated thieves and their strategic methods, targeting industries like food and beverage, retail and beyond. With economic uncertainty persisting and the freight recession continuing, bad actors across the globe are taking advantage of vulnerabilities in the supply chain.

Recently Jarrett brought industry experts from the NMFTA, Cleveland Research and Travelers Inland Marine together for the Jarrett Supply Chain Summit held at Dale Earnhardt Jr’s Old Town Whisky River in Cleveland, North Carolina to discuss the hottest topics that are impacting the transportation industry.

Upcoming NMFTA Changes in 2025

The NMFTA has long been the governing body responsible for setting standards in the LTL transportation industry, particularly regarding freight classifications and operational practices. In 2025, the new changes will impact how businesses ship and protect their goods. These regulations are expected to focus on a new 13-sub density scale, enhancing transparency in freight classifications and improving data-driven decision-making through advanced digital tools.

The Rising Threat of Cargo Theft and Freight Fraud

Cargo theft and freight fraud have been on the rise, and as criminals become more sophisticated, so too must the defenses put in place by shippers. Whether dealing with food and beverage, retail, automotive or other sectors, bad actors are finding new ways to exploit vulnerabilities. From stealing high-value electronics to tampering with food shipments, these crimes not only disrupt supply chains but also create financial and reputational damage for businesses.

A disturbing trend in recent years is the global reach of these threats. Organized criminal networks operating in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and even domestically in the U.S., have increasingly targeted vulnerable points in the supply chain. Thieves are utilizing cyberattacks, insider information and physical theft to intercept and reroute shipments, making it harder for businesses to trace the origins of their losses. While California remains a hot spot for freight theft, Texas and the Midwest have also become unexpected hubs for strategic theft.

Fraud or strategic theft, which typically involves legitimate carriers being impersonated or falsified shipping documents, has really evolved. Criminals are using sophisticated digital techniques to impersonate legitimate carriers, providing false credentials, or taking over cargo during transport.

“We are now seeing a lot of these bad actors purchase thousands of MC and DOT numbers at a time,” said Jarrett Cargo Claims and Risk Manager Jessica Renner. “It used to be that they would buy a few MC numbers, but now when this happens, they are not just getting a few numbers. They are now purchasing the carrier’s contact information and customer lists which makes it look like they bought the whole company.”

The losses from these types of fraud are significant, especially for industries dealing in perishable goods like food and beverage or high-demand retail items. These thieves steal goods that they know they can easily sell or launder, especially items such as energy drinks which are illegal in some countries.

Economic Uncertainty and the Freight Recession

The economic landscape going into 2025 reflects a mix of uncertainty and slowdown in economic cycles. While the job market remains strong and consumer balance sheets appear healthy, government spending, both domestic and foreign, plays a crucial role in shaping the overall macroeconomic environment.

GDP growth is typically composed of five key components: consumer spending, imports, exports, business investment and government spending. Looking at 2023-2024, growth rate ranged from 3% to 5%, but signs indicate a potential slowdown as we approach 2025.

“The ultimate question in the American Economy is are we in for a slowing that is jumping off a 50-foot cliff, a depression, or is this jumping off of a 4-foot ledge?” said Cleveland Research Company’s Senior Analyst Chris Johnson. “We came up after COVID, now we have to step back down, and this is the economic cycle.”

The industry's economic landscape is continually evolving. To listen to Chris Johnson's full presentation on the State of Transportation Update for 2025, click here.

Global Threats to U.S. Supply Chains

The U.S. supply chain is not immune to international threats. Cargo theft and fraud are increasingly driven by global criminal networks, many of which operate beyond the reach of U.S. law enforcement. These networks have targeted U.S. supply chains in industries like food and beverage, retail, pharmaceuticals and automotive. International trade routes and global sourcing from abroad provide opportunities for criminals to intercept shipments and reroute goods before they reach their destination.

In response, U.S. businesses must adopt a more global approach to freight security. Collaboration with law enforcement, implementing advanced digital tools for tracking and verifying cargo and increased vigilance at every stage of the supply chain will be essential to protecting valuable shipments from these growing threats.

How to Strengthen Your Freight Security in 2025

To combat these rising threats, companies must invest in stronger security protocols and technology. Here are a few ways businesses can prepare for the evolving challenges:

1. Leverage Advanced Technology: Advanced technology, GPS tracking and digital verification tools can help create a more transparent and traceable supply chain, making it more difficult for bad actors to interfere.
2. Strengthen Partnerships: Vetting third-party logistics partners, carriers and suppliers thoroughly is crucial. A collaborative approach between supply chain partners can help identify and mitigate risks before they escalate.
3. Train Employees: Human error is often a weak point in the supply chain. Providing comprehensive security training to employees can help them identify red flags and prevent potential breaches.
4. Secure Physical Assets: Enhanced physical security measures, such as surveillance, tamper-evident seals and secure warehousing, can deter theft and minimize risk.
5. Diversify Transportation Strategies: Using a combination of different transportation modes and routes can reduce the risk of theft and fraud by making it harder for criminals to predict the movement of high-value goods.

As 2025 approaches, the logistics industry faces a perfect storm of regulatory changes, economic pressures and increasingly sophisticated cargo theft and fraud schemes, and the stakes have never been higher. By adopting advanced technologies, strengthening partnerships and enhancing security protocols, businesses can stay ahead of bad actors and safeguard their operations in the year to come. To learn more about how Jarrett can help prepare you and your supply chain, visit www.gojarrett.com.